What is the impact of Unemployment Rate on eBays Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) (i.e. top-line growth) and revenue.

I was surprised to observe that the unemployment rate and GMV moved in a correlated manner.
This finding suggests that more people turned to online marketplaces during times of economic uncertainty.

Interactive dashboard to further explore this data set.

Time series analysis (Q4 2019 to Q1 2024) showing Unemployment and eBay's GMV moving in the same direction:

However, when comparing unemployment rates to eBay's revenue over the same period, the results are inconclusive due to the small sample size.
Observationally, there does not appear to be an a strong relationship between unemployment and revenue, despite the apparent positive correlation with GMV.

This suggests that while higher GMV (often driven by increased seller activity) contributes to overall marketplace activity, it does not directly translate into proportional revenue growth.

Time series analysis showing Unemployment Rate moving down while eBay's Revenue is relatively flat.